For those new to the rankings, be sure to catch up on the articles from the first two updates here:
Just a couple notes before we begin:
First, I’d like to apologize for the late rankings. I’ve been under the weather for the last few days, so this is the first chance I’ve had to post.
Second, I’m thinking about posting the entire rankings once the regular season ends, including team-by-team results on games. If this is something you are interested in, please let us know.
Now, let’s get into another great week of football!
-TK
Looking back at the pregame predictions for Week 7, the computer correctly predicted the winner in 80% of games. It was an exciting week of football, so let’s talk about some of these upsets. I listed the games from smallest upset to biggest.
11-MAN
Lincoln 34, Brandon Valley 30
- This was probably the best game in 11-man this last week, and the computer had a close victory (1 point) for the Lynx. We may see a repeat of this game in a few weeks, as Lincoln and BV are now #4 and #5 in the 11AAA Standings.
Beresford 20, SFC 18
- Another big game, SFC was predicted to win by 2. The Watchdogs special teams came to play, blocking an extra point and a field goal. If Beresford doesn’t make those plays, the computer has a perfect prediction. Either way, this game showed that 11A is going to be a battle to reach the state championship.
Watertown 24, Mitchell 14
- An underrated game, this one was important for both teams’ playoffs chances. The computer had the Kernels by 3, but Juven Hudson had a stellar game to lead the Arrows to victory, rushing for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Arrows are now in a great spot to reach the playoffs, and a win over Spearfish would surely put them in the quarterfinals.
Hill City 20, Custer 0
- Hill City not only got their second win of the season, but their second shutout of the season. The computer had Custer as 5 point favorites, but the Rangers ended their final road trip on a high note.
Aberdeen 20, Brookings 3
- The computer had Brookings winning by 7, but Aberdeen instead took home their fourth straight win on Friday night. The Golden Eagles now have a big game against Yankton that will decide who is the #3 seed in the playoffs.
Roosevelt 34, Yankton 29
- The most shocking game of the week, the computer had Yankton as 3-touchdown favorites. Roosevelt, however, is getting momentum at the right time, winning their second game in as many weeks while preparing for a big Saturday matchup against Stevens.
9-MAN
Corsica-Stickney 48, F/M/FA 18
- The computer had F/M/FA by 6, but Corsica-Stickney turned their final home game of the season into a dominant win.
Parkston 16, Bon Homme 9
- The biggest 9-man game of the week, the Cavaliers came into this one as one touchdown favorites. Parkston, meanwhile, flipped the script and took home the win. This one moved a few teams in the 9AA rankings.
White River 32, New Underwood 28
- Our second biggest upset victory, New Underwood was predicted to win by nearly three touchdowns. The win will give White River a chance at the playoffs.
BEST PREDICTIONS
It was a great week for the close predictions, with 2 perfects! Let’s take a look at the top 5 best predictions of the week. In parenthesis is the winning teams predicted margin of victory. (Note: I took out 50 point mercy rule predictions because those are obvious)
Tri-Valley @ Elk Point-Jefferson
PREDICTION: Elk Point-Jefferson by 41
RESULT: Elk Point-Jefferson 48, Tri-Valley 7
Timber Lake @ Harding County/Bison
PREDICTION: Harding County/Bison by 22
RESULT: Harding County/Bison 44, Timber Lake 22
Colman-Egan @ Platte-Geddes
PREDICTION: Platte-Geddes by 42
RESULT: Platte-Geddes 40, Colman-Egan 0
Roncalli @ Webster Area
PREDICTION: Roncalli by 39
RESULT: Roncalli 42, Webster Area 0
Canton @ Vermillion
PREDICTION: Canton by 24
RESULT: Canton 32, Vermillion 13
| 11AAA | Record | Rank+ |
| 1. Jefferson Cavaliers | 7-0 | 175 |
| 2. O’Gorman Knights | 5-2 | 147 |
| 3. Harrisburg Tigers | 6-1 | 145 |
| 4. Lincoln Patriots | 4-3 | 110 |
| 5. Brandon Valley Lynx | 3-4 | 107 |
The Patriots jumped BV and moved into #4 after a 4-point victory against the Lynx. Meanwhile, OG and Harrisburg are about as close as you can get. I think that the Tigers would move into the #2 spot with a dominant win over Brookings.
Game of the Week: #1 Jefferson @ #5 Brandon Valley
Jefferson can lock up the top spot with a win over Brandon Valley, while the Lynx need this win if they want to host a semifinal game. As far as rankings go, I don’t see either team really moving from their spot with a loss, so this game is more for playoff implications.
| 11AA | Record | Rank+ |
| 1. Pierre Governors | 7-0 | 221 |
| 2. Tea Area Titans | 7-0 | 196 |
| 3. Yankton Bucks | 4-3 | 149 |
| 4. Aberdeen Golden Eagles | 4-3 | 105 |
| 5. Brookings Bobcats | 4-3 | 104 |
Aberdeen is now into the #4 spot after their 20-3 win over Brookings, while Yankton lost on Saturday to Roosevelt. Again, not much change, but we now have a very anticipated matchup coming this week…
Game of the Week: #2 Tea Area @ #1 Pierre
Not much needs to be said for how big of a game this is. The winner will be guaranteed the top seed in the playoffs, and every playoff team in AA will have their eye on this one. AA could be pretty exciting down the stretch, as Aberdeen and Yankton play this week to decide on the #3 and #4 seeds, while a handful of teams are jostling for playoff position in the bottom half of the class.
| 11A | Record | Rank+ |
| 1. Dell Rapids Quarriers | 7-0 | 159 |
| 2. West Central Trojans | 6-1 | 158 |
| 3. SFC Chargers | 4-3 | 147 |
| 4. Beresford Watchdogs | 5-2 | 143 |
| 5. Madison Bulldogs | 3-4 | 141 |
Dell Rapids moved back into first place after WC’s loss to Winner, but that could still flip in the next few weeks. SFC holds the #3 over Beresford, even though the Watchdogs beat the Chargers by 2 this past week. Like we discussed earlier, this game could have very easily gone SFC’s way, and a 2 point win isn’t going to move rankings very much at all.
Dakota Valley (137 Rank+) will have two great opportunities to move into the top 5 with ranked games against Beresford and Dell Rapids. I’m excited to also see how Dell Rapids/STM and West Central/Lennox will affect the rankings
Game of the Week: Dakota Valley @ #4 Beresford
Another stellar game, this one has big implications for both the rankings and the playoffs. The winner will basically secure the #3 seed in the playoffs, and could also secure a top 5 spot in the rankings heading into the playoffs.
| 11B | Record | Rank+ |
| 1. EP-J Huskies | 7-0 | 203 |
| 2. Winner Warriors | 7-0 | 187 |
| 3. Roncalli Cavaliers | 7-0 | 163 |
| 4. MC/M Fighting Cougars | 6-1 | 161 |
| 5. MV/P Titans | 7-0 | 150 |
There wasn’t a lot of movement in the rankings, though MC/M is sneaking close to the top 3 after a dominant 44-0 victory over B-E/E. MC/M will be big favorites over Parker, so their chances of reaching #3 will depend on the Roncalli vs C-WL game.
Game of the Week: #2 Winner @ #5 MV/P
One could certainly pick #1 EP-J vs B-E/E, but let’s go with Winner vs MV/P. The Warriors had a tough schedule to end the year, facing B-E/E and West Central before this week’s game. They have handled that schedule admirably, and look to be as dangerous as every heading into the playoffs. This game will give us a preview for the late rounds of the playoffs, and we shall see how much parity there really is in this class.
| 9AA | Record | Rank+ |
| 1. Wall Eagles | 8-0 | 201 |
| 2. Hanson Beavers | 6-1 | 170 |
| 3. Bon Homme Cavaliers | 5-2 | 166 |
| 4. Parkston Trojans | 7-1 | 159 |
| 5. Hamlin Chargers | 7-1 | 157 |
It seems that through all three weeks, the biggest “controversy” in these rankings is in 9AA. For starters, two undefeated teams in Elkton-Lake Benton (156.6 Rank+), and Howard (156.2 Rank +) are sitting at #6 and #7, while 2-loss Bon Homme is at #3. So, let’s explain.
First, we have to understand that wins means you played above a certain floor, and losses mean that you played below a ceiling. For example, let’s take the Bon Homme vs Parkston game. Parkston won by 7, which means that Bon Homme played to a ceiling that is 7 points worse than the Trojans floor in that game. In other terms, this means that Parkston played above a floor that was higher than Bon Homme’s ceiling.
The rankings, however, don’t just factor in 1 game. They factor in all the results of the entire schedule. So, again, when an undefeated team beats a 1-win team by 3, this shows the rankings that the team can play to a floor all the way down to just 3 points better than that of a 1-win team. Likewise, a big win shows that the same team can also play to a really high floor.
The computer’s job is to figure out from all these results where teams truly compare to their opponents based on these scores. In many games, Bon Homme has proven to play at the same level against the same teams as the top teams in the state. Their worst loss to date is 16 points against E-LB, which isn’t that low of a floor at all. On the other hand, a 7-point loss to Parkston did move the Cavs down, but they had enough solid performances to keep them in the rankings.
Howard’s early season 3-point win over K-WL is going to haunt them. Likewise, in opportunities to show they have a high ceiling, they haven’t quite done that. It’s important to note that you can’t really move much when you are supposed to win by 50 and do as such. Instead, you move up when you either:
1) Constantly prove you beat teams by the same result as the top teams in your class.
2) Dominant a high-ranked opponent
Some may ask where Bon Homme has done for point #2, but I would instead look to point #1. They have pretty thoroughly taken dominant wins against teams they are suppose to, including K-WL (46), Stanley County (36), Platte-Geddes (36) and Chester Area (55). In two of their other games, Parkston (-7) and E-LB (-16), they competed well against tough teams (Their final game not yet included was a 20 point win over Viborg-Hurley).
The Cavs have played consistently, and this consistency has been at a high enough to put them in the top 5.
Game of the Week: #3 Bon Homme @ #1A Gregory
It’s hard to choose a game with only 1 9AA team, but this is the only game that could cause a lot of movement. Hamlin, Parkston, and Wall’s seasons are done, while Howard, Elkton-Lake Benton, and Hanson are pretty strong favorites for a victory this week. Therefore, this is the only game that could make a difference in the rankings. A win for the Gorillas would almost surely give them the top spot in 9A, while a win for Bon Homme would secure their place in the top 5.
| 9A | Record | Rank+ |
| 1. Gregory Gorillas | 6-1 | 193 |
| 2. Lyman Raiders | 6-1 | 182 |
| 3. Warner Monarchs | 7-0 | 173 |
| 4. Canistota C-Hawks | 3-4 | 169 |
| 5. HC/B Ranchers | 6-2 | 163 |
Warner made the biggest jump of any team in the rankings, moving from #6 to #3. The undefeated Monarchs are a rivalry victory away from securing the #1 seed in the playoffs, while wins over Hamlin and Estelline/Hendricks were enough to move them up in our ranks.
Game of the Week: Castlewood @ Elkton-Lake Benton
Again, there is only 1 9A in this matchup, but it’s a big one for Castlewood for a multitude of reasons. It’s a great opportunity to move up the rankings because good 9AA victories are always good for the lower classes. It’s important to bring it up, that although the rankings do not know what class you are in, you can still calculate the difference in competition between the two based on the results of all 9-man games. So far this year, the average 9AA team is 8.6 points better than the average 9A team, while the average 9A team is 7.3 points better than 9B.
The other important reason is for the Monarchs’ playoff scenario. The #2-5 seeds currently have just 1-loss each, while Harding County/Bison (2 losses) and Alcester-Hudson (1 loss) are also right up there, and we could see a lot of change from this final week.
| 9B | Record | Rank+ |
| 1. H/SA Wolverines | 7-0 | 173 |
| 2. H-T Patriots | 7-0 | 168 |
| 3. Kadoka Area Kougars | 4-3 | 159 |
| 4. De Smet Bulldogs | 4-3 | 144 |
| 5. Sully Buttes Chargers | 5-2 | 123 |
Hitchcock-Tulare has slowly been moving closer to Herreid/Selby Area and will be right with them heading into the playoffs. Most of these spots, however, look pretty secured, although a big win by Corsica-Stickney could move them into the top 5.
Game of the Week: Corsica-Stickney @ #5 Sully Buttes
Despite having a 6-1 record, the Jaguars have been on the outside looking in for most of the season. As for the Chargers, they are coming off of losses to H/SA and Lyman, and a win over C-S could give them a boost of confidence heading into the playoffs.