As playoff spots begin to finalize, we decided to run a playoff projection for tonight’s matchup. We used our power rankings to simulate the week. For those unfamiliar, you can find the original rankings and primer here.
Below you can find all of our projections for tonight’s contests. In each section (11-Man and 9-Man) we will take a look at some of the biggest games tonight for playoff implications.
All playoff projections are based off of the official rules from the SDHSAA. These can be found below the projections, as well as the link here.
NOTE: These results are a simulated projection, and are not guaranteed to be the actual placement. Upsets can and will happen, causing changes to the seed points.
11-MAN COMPUTER PROJECTIONS (WEEK 9)
Note: Projected Winners in BOLD.
11AAA/AA
| Home | Away |
|---|---|
| Lincoln | Washington |
| Harrisburg | Brookings |
| RC Central | O’Gorman |
| Brandon Valley | Jefferson |
| Pierre | Tea Area |
| Watertown | Spearfish |
| Mitchell | Huron |
| Yankton | Aberdeen |
| Sturgis | Douglas |
| Roosevelt | Stevens |
Biggest Games-
AAA: Jefferson @ BV
Why? Because Jefferson can lock up the top spot, while BV needs this win if they want to host a first round matchup.
AA: Tea Area @ Pierre
Why? Winner gets the #1 spot.
AA: Aberdeen @ Yankton
Why? Both teams are currently tied for third, and a win could have big implications for dome-aspirations.
11A
| Home | Away |
|---|---|
| Canton | Custer |
| West Central | Lennox |
| Lead-Deadwood (B) | Lakota Tech |
| Beresford | Dakota Valley |
| Vermillion | Madison |
| Belle Fourche | SFC |
| Dell Rapids | St Thomas More (B) |
| Chamberlain | Milbank |
Biggest Games-
SFC @ Belle Fourche
Why? Belle Fourche is fighting for that #8 spot with Lennox. Both teams will take on SFC in the next two weeks, and a win for either of those teams against the Chargers would be big.
Dakota Valley @ Beresford
Why? The computer has this one as a close game, so it could go either way. A win for the Watchdogs will move them up into Tier 3 for Seed Points, so every team that played them would get a 3 point bonus, which could have big implications as playoff spots in 11A are volatile this season.
11B
| Home | Away |
|---|---|
| Roncalli | CWL |
| RC Christian | WWSSC |
| Mobridge-Pollock | Groton Area |
| Tri-Valley | Wagner |
| BEE | EPJ |
| MCM | Parker |
| Redfield | Deuel |
| Flandreau | Sioux Valley |
| MVP | Winner |
| MHH | TDAACDC |
| Baltic | Sisseton |
| Hill City | Hot Springs |
| Redfield | Deuel |
Groton Area @ Mobridge-Pollock
Why? This is basically a play-in game for the playoffs. For our simulations, the winner of this game will reach the playoffs, while the loser is out. That’s how close it is for the final seeds of the tournament. Right now, the computer has Mobridge-Pollock winning by 3. Also, if all else holds true, an “upset” win by Groton Area would move Hot Springs to #6, Deuel to #7, and W/WS/SC to #8. So this game has the volatility and power to shake up the seeding tonight.
Deuel @ Redfield
Why? An “upset” win by Redfield would move the Pheasants to #8, Deuel to #10, B-E/E to #11, and Sioux Valley to #12. If Deuel wins, and all else holds true, the Cardinals will hold at the #8 spot.
Sioux Valley @ Flandreau
Why? Sioux Valley is projected to win by 10, but a win from Flandreau would make everything crazy in these sims. Flandreau would move (see below) from #19 to #12. Redfield would move to #11, while Sioux Valley, Tri-Valley, Lead-Deadwood, Mobridge-Pollock, and Jim River WOULD ALL BE TIED AT #14.
Oh yeah, and EP-J would move into a tie with Roncalli at #2, while MC/M would tied with MV/P at #4. Those would be decided by tie breakers, but either way. A win for Flandreau could change everything!
PROJECTED PLAYOFF SPOTS
| 11B | W-L | Seed Pts. |
| 1. Winner | 8-0 | 47.500 |
| 2. Roncalli | 8-0 | 45.625 |
| 3. Elk Point-Jefferson | 8-0 | 45.250 |
| 4. Mount Vernon/Plankinton | 7-1 | 45.250 |
| 5. McCook Central/Montrose | 7-1 | 44.875 |
| 6. W/WS/SC | 6-2 | 43.875 |
| 7. Hot Springs | 6-2 | 43.875 |
| 8. Deuel | 7-1 | 43.375 |
| 9. St. Thomas More | 5-3 | 42.500 |
| 10. Bridgewater-Emery/Ethan | 5-3 | 42.125 |
| 11. Sioux Valley | 5-3 | 41.750 |
| 12. Redfield | 5-3 | 41.375 |
| 13. RC Christian | 4-4 | 40.750 |
| 14. Tri-Valley | 4-4 | 40.375 |
| 15. Lead-Deadwood | 4-4 | 40.375 |
| 16. Mobridge-Pollock | 4-4 | 40.375 |
Season Over: M-H/H, Jim River, Flandreau, C/WL, Groton Area, Webster Area, T-D/A/AC/DC, Wagner, Parker, Hill City, Baltic, Sisseton, Dakota Hills
9-MAN PROJECTIONS (WEEK 9)
Note: Projected Winners in BOLD.
| Home | Away |
|---|---|
| Canistota | Platte-Geddes |
| Bennett County | Kimball/White Lake |
| White River | Philip |
| Herreid/Selby Area | Britton-Hecla |
| Gregory | Bon Homme |
| Garretson | Centerville |
| Leola/Frederick Area | Faulkton Area |
| Ipswich | North Central |
| Elkton-Lake Benton | Castlewood |
| Stanley County | Faith |
| Chester Area | Howard |
| Hanson | Colome |
| Great Plains Lutheran | Hitchcock-Tulare |
| Freeman/Marion/Freeman Academy | Florence/Henry |
| Lyman | Lemmon/McIntosh |
| Gayville-Volin | Burke |
| Estelline/Hendricks | Dell Rapids St. Mary |
| Colman-Egan | Arlington |
| Oldham-Ramona/Rutland | Iroquois/Lake Preston |
| Avon | Wolsey-Wessington |
| Alcester-Hudson | Irene-Wakonda |
| Northwestern | Warner |
| Waverly-South Shore | Langford Area |
| De Smet | Deubrook Area |
| Sunshine Bible Academy | Potter County |
| Sully Buttes | Corsica-Stickney |
| New Underwood | Kadoka Area |
Platte-Geddes @ Canistota
Why? The computer has this as a 1-point win for Canistota, which is the closest projection of the night. A win for Platte-Geddes jumps them up to #9, while a loss moves Canistota to #11. Outside of the team’s playing, this would move #5 Hanson, #6 Hamlin and #7 Bon Homme to #5 Hamlin, #5 Bon Homme and #7 Hanson. It would also put Wall in the top spot, and move Elkton-Lake Benton #2.
Bon Homme @ Gregory
Why? If Gregory wins, Wall moves to #1, E-LB to #2, while Parkston, Hanson and Hamlin move to a three-way tie. Platte-Geddes, Viborg-Hurley and the Cavaliers would all drop a spot, so this one has implications for the later rounds of the playoffs.
Faith @ Stanley County
Why? A win for Faith puts Stanley Co at #16, while Sully Buttes drops to #5, Faith moves up to #6, De Smet falls to #7 and Avon drops to #8.
There are plenty of other games that will shift some teams around, but these were the ones we thought were the most interesting.
PROJECTED PLAYOFF SPOTS
| 9AA | W-L | Seed Pts. |
| 1. Elkton-Lake Benton | 8-0 | 46.750 |
| 2. Wall | 8-0 | 46.375 |
| 3. Howard | 8-0 | 46.000 |
| 4. Parkston | 7-1 | 45.250 |
| 5. Hanson | 7-1 | 44.875 |
| 6. Hamlin | 7-1 | 44.875 |
| 7. Bon Homme | 6-2 | 44.625 |
| 8. F/M/FA | 6-2 | 43.125 |
| 9. Ipswich | 6-2 | 42.000 |
| 10. Platte-Geddes | 4-4 | 41.500 |
| 11. Florence/Henry | 4-4 | 41.500 |
| 12. Leola/Frederick Area | 5-3 | 41.375 |
| 13. Viborg-Hurley | 4-4 | 40.750 |
| 14. Stanley County | 4-4 | 40.750 |
| 15. Britton-Hecla | 4-4 | 39.625 |
| 16. Kimball/White Lake | 2-6 | 39.500 |
Season Over: Great Plains Lutheran, White River, Dupree, Garretson, North Central, Bennett County
| 9A | W-L | Seed Pts. |
| 1. Warner | 8-0 | 46.000 |
| 2. Lyman | 7-1 | 44.125 |
| 3. Gregory | 6-2 | 42.750 |
| 4. Philip | 7-1 | 42.625 |
| 5. Alcester-Hudson | 7-1 | 42.625 |
| 6. Wolsey-Wessington | 5-3 | 42.500 |
| 7. Harding County/Bison | 6-2 | 42.375 |
| 8. Canistota | 4-4 | 42.250 |
| 9. Castlewood | 6-2 | 42.000 |
| 10. Timber Lake | 5-3 | 41.375 |
| 11. Estelline/Hendricks | 5-3 | 41.000 |
| 12. Chester Area | 3-5 | 39.750 |
| 13. Deubrook Area | 4-4 | 39.625 |
| 14. Iroquois/Lake Preston | 2-6 | 38.750 |
| 15. Burke | 1-7 | 37.750 |
| 16. Oldham-Ramona/Rutland | 2-6 | 37.625 |
Season Over: Northwestern, Centerville, Waverly-South Shore, Colman-Egan, Newell
| 9B | W-L | Seed Pts. |
| 1. Herreid/Selby Area | 8-0 | 45.625 |
| 2. Hitchcock-Tulare | 8-0 | 44.125 |
| 3. Sully Buttes | 6-2 | 43.500 |
| 4. Corsica-Stickney | 6-2 | 43.500 |
| 5. Kadoka Area | 5-3 | 43.250 |
| 6. De Smet | 5-3 | 42.150 |
| 7. Avon | 4-4 | 41.500 |
| 8. Faith | 5-3 | 40.625 |
| 9. Colome | 4-4 | 40.000 |
| 10. Faulkton Area | 4-4 | 40.000 |
| 11. Irene-Wakonda | 3-5 | 39.750 |
| 12. Potter County | 3-5 | 39.000 |
| 13. New Underwood | 2-6 | 38.750 |
| 14. Jones Co | 3-5 | 38.625 |
| 15. St.Mary | 3-5 | 38.625 |
| 16. Lemmon/McIntosh | 2-6 | 38.375 |
Season Over: Gayville-Volin, Sunshine Bible Academy, Langford Area, Arlington
Seed Point Average Tie-Breaking Procedure
If teams should tie for a qualifying spot because of identical point averages, then the tie will be broken by
applying the following criteria in the order listed (in all classes except for 11AAA). In the event of a
multiple-team tie-break situation, teams shall be evaluated together until one is separated by the criteria in
order. After one team is removed, the process shall start over with the remaining teams.
Head-to-Head result(s)
If a tied team has an undefeated record while the other(s) do(es) not
Team playing the most games
Team with the most victories
Team with the least losses
Common opponent – evaluated individually and in order of common opponent’s seed point average
a. If team(s) played multiple common opponents, results of contest(s) against the common
opponent with the best regular season seed point average will be evaluated as a first tiebreaker, followed by the next best, and so on
The average of the tying teams opponents’ seed points
SDHSAA to conduct a drawing by lot of the team(s) involved to take place in the presence of a
Notary Public
SDHSAA Football Seed Point System (NEW 2015)
The following system for seed point determination for postseason seeding will be used as follows:
– Seed points will be awarded based upon opponent’s win percentage as shown in the chart below.
*Win percentage = number of varsity wins divided by the number of varsity contests played.
| Opp Win % | Points for Wins | Points for Loss |
| .750 and above | 50 | 39 |
| .500-.749 | 47 | 36 |
| .250-.499 | 44 | 33 |
| .249 and below | 41 | 30 |
a. No points are deducted for playing teams which are classified below your classification.
b. No additional points are awarded for playing teams which are classified above your classification.
c. No contests against non-varsity opponents will count toward seed points. However, such games must
be counted as one of the allowable games that have been established for each team.
A team’s seed point average will be determined by dividing the total number of seed points earned by
the total number of contests played against varsity opponents, regardless of the opponent’s
classification.
One additional seed point will be awarded to a team’s average at the end of the regular season who finishes undefeated.
Point average for the season is computed to the nearest thousandth of a point.