INTRODUCTION
Patience.
It’s what many had to experience this basketball season, with snow storms preventing much of the early schedule for happening. It’s also a reminder for one like myself, who was anxious to build the newest power rankings system for basketball. And now, that patience has come to fruition.
First, for those new here, let’s get a few basics out of the way. Over the past summer, countless hours of research and development were put into a power rankings system for high school sports. The only statistics used in the system are the location of the game, and the score. This is to eliminate any biases in the system.
Then after running the system through the last few years of football, we were able to fine tune it using standard deviation to normalize scores, and released the rankings halfway through the 2022 football season.
The results?
A 87.8% success rate on picking the winner of playoff games, and a perfect 7-7 in state championships.
Now, we bring it over to the basketball season, with a few notes. First, we gain more data as we go along. The more games that are played, the more information the system has, and the better rankings we are to get.
Second, basketball is very volatile when it comes to taking home victories. That is to say, anyone can win on any given night. The difference right now between the best team in Boys AA and the 5th best team is 5 points. In fact, when we went through the numbers, there is 10 teams who are less than 10 projected points from being the top team in the state, any class. And as any basketball coach, player or fan knows, 5-10 points is only a couple of key possessions.
For football, the second best team in the state was projected nearly two touchdowns worse than the best in the state. That is a considerably larger gap. Therefore, don’t be shocked when it is possible to see more upsets. Again, as we get more information, gaps may widden, but the nature of the sport leads to crazy things.
After all, that’s why it’s called March Madness!
Third, there is currently no cap for scoring as was done for football. This may be done later, but the idea behind this is simply the flexibility in schedule. For football, teams are in smaller classes, rarely cross into other classes at the largest enrollments, and therefore, have a chance to match other team’s results against similar opponents.
This is not the case in basketball, as scheduling is up to the individual schools and conferences, and so as to not punish good teams in bad conferences/schedules, we have not put a ceiling on winning margin. For example, say a team was one of the best in the state, but played a somewhat lighter schedule. And let’s say this team beats another by 45, similar to what a team of it’s caliber would do. However, we limit the winning margin to 30. This team now looks 15 points worse.
This isn’t a problem in football for a number of reasons including similar schedules and more info we can dive into later, but in basketball, over the course of a season, this can really bring down a team who plays in a region with worse basketball, as they will play many of these games.
Finally, let’s talk Rank+ for those unfamiliar. Once the computer produces the ratings, we take those numbers and normalize them for their class. A 100 Rank+ in a class means they are an average team in their class. 1 point higher = 1% increase in their computer rating. This makes Rank+ a good number to gauge where a team is in their respective class.
Bonus Notes:
- “Best Win” is the highest ranked win the team has.
- Out of state opponents do not count towards the rankings.
- All Scores updated through the second week of January.
#1 De Smet Bulldogs (7-1)
Rank+: 187.9
Best Win: #8A C/WL (59-40)
Wins: Deubrook Area, St. Mary, Arlington, C/WL, Howard, I/LP, Pipestone Area (MN)
The Bulldogs lost an excellent senior class last season, so one might think that we would see some fall off as new players step into the lineup…Nope.
6-10 Damon Wilkinson has emerged as one of the best players in the state, with the ability to score 30 points, grab 15 rebounds or block 5 shots on any given night. Forwards Kasen Jensen (6-5) and George Jensen (6-5) make the Bulldogs the tallest frontcourt in Class B, while Guards Kadyn Fast and Gannon Gruenhagen round out an incredible starting lineup.
De Smet will have a chance to prove their excellence in the upcoming weeks, with #10A Hamlin, #2 Lower Brule, #4 Castlewood, and #10 Canistota all on the schedule.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ #10A Hamlin, Fri @ Estelline-Hendricks, Sat @ Corn Palace vs. #2 Lower Brule
#2 Lower Brule Sioux (7-2)
Rank+: 169.3
Best Win: #4 Castlewood (64-61)
Wins: Marty, McLaughlin, Pine Ridge, Lakota Tech, Howard, Parkston, Castlewood
Lower Brule had a great showing at the Lakota Nation Invite, taking home three wins while barely losing to champion RC Christian in the semifinals. Though they also have a loss to Aberdeen Christian, Lower Brule made a statement with their win against Castlewood.
They will have a great test against #1 De Smet at the Corn Palace this Saturday.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ C-EB, Fri vs. Flandreau Indian, Sat @ Corn Palace vs #1 De Smet
#3 Aberdeen Christian Knights (7-0)
Rank+: 162.0
Best Win: #2 Lower Brule (62-48)
Wins: JVC, Britton-Hecla, Mobridge-Pollock, Lower Brule, Oakes (ND), Potter County, L/FA
The Knights have put together a great season so far, taking down two teams in the top 10 in Lower Brule and James Valley Christian. While a lighter schedule outside of those two games has lead to less of a resume than the other teams above them, the Knights will have an opportunity to prove they are one of the best teams in the state when they take on White River this Saturday.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ Faulkton Area, Thu @ Waubay-Summit, Sat @ Corn Palace vs #5 White River
#4 Castlewood Warriors (8-1)
Rank+: 161.3
Best Win: #8A Clark/Willow Lake (54-51)
Wins: E-LB, Flandreau, Arlington, Madison, Sisseton, Deuel, C/WL, GPL
The Warriors schedule is filled with Class A teams, which has helped them prepare for teams that may have good depth in the postseason. Their win against C/WL on January 10th was huge road victory, and a close battle with Lower Brule on the road Saturday shows this is a team that can be dangerous.
They have two teams in the top 10 on the schedule over the next 7 days, so it’ll be exciting to see how the Warriors matchup up with the best.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ #9 St. Mary, Fri @ O-R/R
#5 White River Tigers (10-1)
Rank+: 149.9
Best Win: Lakota Tech (52-42)
Wins: Jones County, Marty, Todd County, Lakota Tech, Bridgewater-Emery, Campbell County (WY), Kadok Area, Bennett County, Colome, Philip
Quick, without looking it up, when is the last time White River has played at home?
The answer…
March 4th, 2022, when they beat Wall 67-38 in a playoff game.
The Tigers are the ultimate road warriors this season, playing at some of the biggest arenas in the 605, including the Summit Arena, the Corn Palace, and the Sanford Pentagon. That schedule is going to prepare them for environment that is the playoffs, and honestly, is a great experience for the players.
Speaking of the players, White River’s Joe Sayler is again creating a new highlight reel every game, knocking down numerous threes and slamming down impressive dunks. Besides the SDSU commit, point guard Nic Marshall has shown ability to get to the basket and take charge of the #1 scoring offense in the state.
The only thing the Tigers are missing is a marquee victory, but they will have that opportunity this Saturday against Aberdeen Christian.
Weekly Schedule: Thu vs. St. Francis Indian, Sat @ Corn Palace vs #3 Aberdeen Christian
#6 Wolsey-Wessington Warbirds (6-0)
Rank+: 144.5
Best Win: #8 JVC (59-56)
Wins: Faulkton Area, Kadoka Area, Highmore-Harrold, Miller, JVC, SBA
The girls team at Wolsey-Wessington has been respected as one of the best teams in the state, but the boys team has also quietly worked their way to 6-0, just one of three teams in Class B with a spotless season.
The Warbirds have taken down some solid teams including 8-1 Highmore-Harrold, and #8 James Valley Christian. They have just one more ranked opponent currently on the schedule,, as they host #1 De Smet on February 9th, and there is a good chance the Warbirds can remain undefeated heading into the big game. Until then, be on the lookout for the Warbirds.
Weekly Schedule: Sat vs. I/LP
#7 Northwestern Wildcats (6-0)
Rank+: 143.9
Best Win: Florence/Henry (65-39)
Wins: Wilmot, Waverly-SS, Ipswich, Britton-Hecla, Florence/Henry, Little Wound
The final of the three undefeated teams in Class B, Northwestern has been dominant this season. They have had only 1 opponent come with 15 points, and done the best they can with their schedule. They Wildcats do have some tough games down the road including #3 Aberdeen Christian, and a rivalry matchup versus Warner tomorrow.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. Warner, Fri @ Roncalli
#8 James Valley Christian Vikings (4-2)
Rank+: 142.3
Best Win: SC/W (67-40)
Wins: SBA, Burke, O-R/R, SC/W
At first glance, someone might be shocked to see JVC in the top 10. But the Vikings have done two things really well:
- Played very close with a ranked team
- Dominated the games they should
Frankly put, JVC has done exactly what a team in this position should. They have won all their games by 27+ points, and played Wolsey-Wessington to a 3-point battle on the road. The Vikings also have a loss on the road to Aberdeen Christian on their opening night (74-45), but the Knights are ranked high enough that it doesn’t move the JVC too much.
Either way, the Vikings have been fairly consistent with what their schedule has given them so far. They have some good matchups ahead with 5-1 Ipswich and 8-1 Highmore-Harrold, so JVC will have more opportunities to continue building their resume.
Weekly Schedule: Sat vs. Ipswich
#9 St. Mary Cardinals (5-2)
Rank+: 138.6
Best Win: Estelline/Hendricks (65-45)
Wins: Colman-Egan, Waverly-SS, Estelline-Hendricks, E-LB, O-R/R
The Cardinals are another team that has quietly built up the wins, consistently beating the teams they should, and most recently, battling with Class A Madison until the end. St. Mary has show much improvement since their loss to De Smet in December, and has an exciting matchup with #4 Castlewood on Tuesday.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. #4 Castlewood, Thu @ Chester Area
#10 Canistota Hawks (4-3)
Rank+: 137.4
Best Win: Bridgewater-Emery (58-30)
Wins: Centerville, Bridgewater-Emery, Freeman, Canton
Another interesting team, the Hawks have won the expected games, and have fought to the end in their Class B losses. They are going to have a lot of chances this week to secure their Top 10 spot, with matchups against FA/M (6-2), Hanson (4-3) and #8A C/WL (6-3).
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. FA/M, Thu @ Hanson, Sat @ Corn Palace vs. C/WL
