INTRODUCTION
Patience.
It’s what many had to experience this basketball season, with snow storms preventing much of the early schedule for happening. It’s also a reminder for one like myself, who was anxious to build the newest power rankings system for basketball. And now, that patience has come to fruition.
First, for those new here, let’s get a few basics out of the way. Over the past summer, countless hours of research and development were put into a power rankings system for high school sports. The only statistics used in the system are the location of the game, and the score. This is to eliminate any biases in the system.
Then after running the system through the last few years of football, we were able to fine tune it using standard deviation to normalize scores, and released the rankings halfway through the 2022 football season.
The results?
A 87.8% success rate on picking the winner of playoff games, and a perfect 7-7 in state championships.
Now, we bring it over to the basketball season, with a few notes. First, we gain more data as we go along. The more games that are played, the more information the system has, and the better rankings we are to get.
Second, basketball is very volatile when it comes to taking home victories. That is to say, anyone can win on any given night. The difference right now between the best team in Boys AA and the 5th best team is 5 points. In fact, when we went through the numbers, there is 10 teams who are less than 10 projected points from being the top team in the state, any class. And as any basketball coach, player or fan knows, 5-10 points is only a couple of key possessions.
For football, the second best team in the state was projected nearly two touchdowns worse than the best in the state. That is a considerably larger gap. Therefore, don’t be shocked when it is possible to see more upsets. Again, as we get more information, gaps may widden, but the nature of the sport leads to crazy things.
After all, that’s why it’s called March Madness!
Third, there is currently no cap for scoring as was done for football. This may be done later, but the idea behind this is simply the flexibility in schedule. For football, teams are in smaller classes, rarely cross into other classes at the largest enrollments, and therefore, have a chance to match other team’s results against similar opponents.
This is not the case in basketball, as scheduling is up to the individual schools and conferences, and so as to not punish good teams in bad conferences/schedules, we have not put a ceiling on winning margin. For example, say a team was one of the best in the state, but played a somewhat lighter schedule. And let’s say this team beats another by 45, similar to what a team of it’s caliber would do. However, we limit the winning margin to 30. This team now looks 15 points worse.
This isn’t a problem in football for a number of reasons including similar schedules and more info we can dive into later, but in basketball, over the course of a season, this can really bring down a team who plays in a region with worse basketball, as they will play many of these games.
Finally, let’s talk Rank+ for those unfamiliar. Once the computer produces the ratings, we take those numbers and normalize them for their class. A 100 Rank+ in a class means they are an average team in their class. 1 point higher = 1% increase in their computer rating. This makes Rank+ a good number to gauge where a team is in their respective class.
Bonus Notes:
- “Best Win” is the highest ranked win the team has.
- Out of state opponents do not count towards the rankings.
- All Scores updated through the second week of January.
#1 Lincoln Patriots (6-1)
Rank+: 161.6
Best Win: #3 Washington (60-56)
Wins: Washington, Harrisburg, Pierre, Aberdeen, Huron, Roosevelt
Lincoln have looked excellent in January; hitting their stride just as they face the toughest part of the schedule.The Patriots has begun to find rhythm on the offensive end, and I was really impressed with how they handled Huron, a team who has quietly played with the best in the class. The Patriots also showed hungriness and didn’t fall into a trap game, before ending the weekend with a dominant victory over Roosevelt the next day. Teams need to show that ability to play high level basketball on back-to-back nights at state.
Lincoln will have two more games this week against teams that are really looking to make some noise in the back half of January, and OG + Mitchell is a better showing of what a team might see at the state tournament.
Weekly Schedule: Fri @ #8 O’Gorman, Sat vs. #6 Mitchell
#2 Jefferson Cavaliers (6-0)
Rank+: 155.3
Best Win: #1 Lincoln (71-57)
Wins: Roosevelt, Lincoln, Orono (MN), RC Central, Stevens, Washington
The Cavaliers have transitioned from a dominant football season right into a great basketball season. They have taken wins home against top 10 teams in #1 Lincoln, #3 Washington and #10 Roosevelt. Winners win and these Jefferson athletes have proven to be winners.
However, close wins against RC Central and Stevens did lower their rankings a bit, but with 14 more games to play, the Cavs have plenty of time to go after that number 1 spot. They have some great matchups this week, including a tough Yankton team on Tuesday that will feature some crazy good guard play from both squads.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. #4 Yankton, Fri @ #9 Harrisburg, Sat vs. Huron
#3 Washington Warriors (4-2)
Rank+: 153.5
Best Win: #4 Pierre (63-57)
Wins: Huron, Aberdeen, Pierre, O’Gorman
The Warriors are another team who have show some strong play since the break, taking home the majority of their wins in January, including a big momentum booster against Pierre. They suffered a loss to Jefferson at home on Friday, but were very much in the game the whole way.
The Warriors guard play has been solid, and is complimented by 6-8 center Kael Miedema, who impressed me in his matchup against 7-1 JT Rock of Lincoln. Washington is going to have another chance against the Patriots next week, but looks to take care of business first against Harrisburg.
Weekly Schedule: Thu @ Marshall (MN), Sat @ #9 Harrisburg
#4 Pierre Governors (6-2)
Rank+: 146.7
Best Win: Winner (66-32)
Wins: Stevens, RC Central, Watertown, Spearfish, Sturgis, Winner
The Governors could certainly be listed higher when looking at the eye test. Their athleticism is arguably the best in the state, and they run the floor very well. They took some losses against Lincoln and Washington without their leading scorer in Lincoln Kienholz, and a lighter December schedule hasn’t given them many opportunities against some of the best teams in the class.
However, they got a big win this last week, taking down previously undefeated Winner. They also have another tough game this Thursday against Brandon Valley and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Govs quietly make their way up through the rankings by the end of January.
Weekly Schedule: Thu @ #7 Brandon Valley, Sat @ Douglas
#5 Yankton Bucks (4-1)
Rank+: 142.4
Best Win: #8 O’Gorman (55-52)
Wins: Harrisburg, Brookings, Watertown, O’Gorman
The Bucks have had more game cancelled then maybe anyone in AA this season, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t made a few statements. Their guard play has been excellent, and a team without a lot of height has shown they can play tough defense when needed too.
They took a loss against Mitchell in their first game back in 2023, but erased some of the mistakes with a solid victory on the road in Watertown. The Bucks then turned around the next day and traveled to O’Gorman, taking home a gritty overtime win that featured a steal and half court buzzer beater from point guard Rugby Ryken.
Yankton now has 3 of the 4 Sioux Falls schools on it’s schedule, so they are going to have plenty of chances to prove that their great guard play is some of the best in the state.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ #2 Jefferson, Fri vs #10 Roosevelt
#6 Mitchell Kernels (6-1)
Rank+: 133.4
Best Win: #5 Yankton (49-44)
Wins: Huron, Campbell County (WY), Thunder Basin (WY), Yankton, Huron, Brookings
When a team loses a player that is as talented as Caden Hinker, you expect there to be some fall off in play…Instead, the Kernels have quietly put together six wins, and placed themselves in a position to make some noise.
The first week of January in particular really showed the toughness of this Mitchell team. After a 20 point loss on the road to Harrisburg, the Kernels found themselves down 15 at halftime against Yankton in the River City. It would have been easy to pack it up and coast to another loss, but the Kernels dug deep and stuck within strike distance before playing lock down defense to get the win.
They have some real tests in the upcoming days, particularly against Lincoln, but the Kernels are showing a lot of promise early in the year.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs #10 Roosevelt, Sat @ #1 Lincoln
#7 Brandon Valley Lynx (5-2)
Rank+: 132.9
Best Win: O’Gorman (57-51)
Wins: O’Gorman, Brookings, Watertown, Spearfish, Douglas
The Lynx looked to be tested in the next couple of weeks with some tough battles coming at the end of January. We haven’t gotten to see a ton of evaluating performances for BV, mostly because their last 4 opponents have a combined record of 5-23.
They do, however, have a marquee matchup this week at home against Pierre, who is back to full strength, before taking on Jefferson and Yankton at the end of the month, so it will be exciting to see how the Lynx facing these challenges.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs Marshall (MN), Thu vs #4 Pierre, Sat @ Aberdeen
#8 O’Gorman Knights (3-5)
Rank+: 128.6
Best Win: #5A Tea Area (66-55)
Wins: Tea Area, Watertown, Brookings
Usually, one wouldn’t expect a team with a losing record to be ranked this high, but that would mean they haven’t watched the Knights play this season. Through those 5 losses, OG has been defeated by 3, 5, 6, 8, and 8. The last of those came in an overtime loss that showed some really good final possessions in the regulation to give themselves a chance.
The Knights have been in every game so far this season, and that’s scary for opponents. If they can turn those losses into experience and motivation, this is a team that could quietly make their way to the top of AA.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. Aberdeen, Fri vs. #1 Lincoln, Sat @ 10 Roosevelt
#9 Harrisburg Tigers (5-4)
Rank+: 125.3
Best Win: #6 Mitchell (75-57)
Wins: LeMars (IA), Roosevelt, Mitchell, Douglas, Spearfish
The one-two punch of Ethan Determan and Jacoby Mehrman has been one of the best scoring combos in the state, and this is another team similar to O’Gorman in that they have played in every game so far this season. After all, their losses are by 1, 2, 5, and 5.
If the Tigers can continue to score as much as they have (70+ in 3 different games) then they too will be absolutely dangerous in the second half of the season. Their matchups this week are going to be tough, but it’s also an opportunity to prove they can play with anyone in the 605.
Weekly Schedule: Fri vs. #2 Jefferson, Sat vs #3 Washington
#10 Roosevelt Rough Riders (4-3)
Rank+: 109.6
Best Win: #7 Brandon Valley (63-59)
Wins: O’Gorman, Brandon Valley, Stevens, RC Central
Another team with a great opportunity this week, the Rough Riders have games against #5 Yankton, #6 Mitchell and #8 O’Gorman. That’s a tough stretch for the defending champions, but weeks like this one prepare you for the state tournament.
Not to mention, they also play #1 Jefferson and #3 Washington before the calendar turns to February. This Rough Riders team is going get a lot more experience over the next few weeks, and could be another team that quietly climbs the rankings.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ #6 Mitchell, Fri @ #5 Yankton, Sat vs #8 O’Gorman
