INTRODUCTION
Patience.
It’s what many had to experience this basketball season, with snow storms preventing much of the early schedule for happening. It’s also a reminder for one like myself, who was anxious to build the newest power rankings system for basketball. And now, that patience has come to fruition.
First, for those new here, let’s get a few basics out of the way. Over the past summer, countless hours of research and development were put into a power rankings system for high school sports. The only statistics used in the system are the location of the game, and the score. This is to eliminate any biases in the system.
Then after running the system through the last few years of football, we were able to fine tune it using standard deviation to normalize scores, and released the rankings halfway through the 2022 football season.
The results?
A 87.8% success rate on picking the winner of playoff games, and a perfect 7-7 in state championships.
Now, we bring it over to the basketball season, with a few notes. First, we gain more data as we go along. The more games that are played, the more information the system has, and the better rankings we are to get.
Second, basketball is very volatile when it comes to taking home victories. That is to say, anyone can win on any given night. The difference right now between the best team in Boys AA and the 5th best team is 5 points. In fact, when we went through the numbers, there is 10 teams who are less than 10 projected points from being the top team in the state, any class. And as any basketball coach, player or fan knows, 5-10 points is only a couple of key possessions.
For football, the second best team in the state was projected nearly two touchdowns worse than the best in the state. That is a considerably larger gap. Therefore, don’t be shocked when it is possible to see more upsets. Again, as we get more information, gaps may widden, but the nature of the sport leads to crazy things.
After all, that’s why it’s called March Madness!
Third, there is currently no cap for scoring as was done for football. This may be done later, but the idea behind this is simply the flexibility in schedule. For football, teams are in smaller classes, rarely cross into other classes at the largest enrollments, and therefore, have a chance to match other team’s results against similar opponents.
This is not the case in basketball, as scheduling is up to the individual schools and conferences, and so as to not punish good teams in bad conferences/schedules, we have not put a ceiling on winning margin. For example, say a team was one of the best in the state, but played a somewhat lighter schedule. And let’s say this team beats another by 45, similar to what a team of it’s caliber would do. However, we limit the winning margin to 30. This team now looks 15 points worse.
This isn’t a problem in football for a number of reasons including similar schedules and more info we can dive into later, but in basketball, over the course of a season, this can really bring down a team who plays in a region with worse basketball, as they will play many of these games.
Finally, let’s talk Rank+ for those unfamiliar. Once the computer produces the ratings, we take those numbers and normalize them for their class. A 100 Rank+ in a class means they are an average team in their class. 1 point higher = 1% increase in their computer rating. This makes Rank+ a good number to gauge where a team is in their respective class.
Bonus Notes:
- “Best Win” is the highest ranked win the team has.
- Out of state opponents do not count towards the rankings.
- All Scores updated through the second week of January.
#1 Sioux Falls Christian Chargers (8-0)
Rank+: 182.6
Best Win: #3 Dell Rapids (65-53)
Wins: Lennox, West Central, EP-J, O’Gorman, Thunder Basin (WY), Unity Christian (IA), Dell Rapids, Watertown
The Chargers took a big win this week against #2 Dell Rapids, earning themselves the #1 spot. They have also taking down some other tough teams in Lennox, EP-J, and O’Gorman.
SFC still has a ton of great opportunities to secure the position with games against Dakota Valley, Jefferson, White River, Tea Area, Yankton, and Sioux Valley on the schedule. Without a doubt, the Chargers have the toughest schedule in Class A, and will certainly be battle-tested by the end of the regular season.
Weekly Schedule: Thu @ Vermillion, Fri vs. Madison
#2 Dell Rapids Quarriers (5-1)
Rank+: 171.8
Best Win: #10 Hamlin (64-52)
Wins: West Central, Hamlin, Canton, Baltic, Milbank
Dell Rapids is a team filled with winners, evident by their state championships in baseball and football. They have the confidence to be one of the best teams in the state and have showcased great athleticism and clutch guard play so far this season.
The Quarriers also have a guard in Brayden Pankonen who showed in the SFC loss that he can take over anytime, and a talented array of both guards and forwards that have contributed to the 5th best scoring offense in the class.
This is going to be a dangerous team out of the Dakota XII, and one who has the potential to play with anyone in the state.
Weekly Schedule: Mon vs. Parker, Thu @ Madison, Sat vs. EP-J
#3 Dakota Valley Panthers (8-0)
Rank+: 171.6
Best Win: #5 Tea Area (67-43)
Wins: Tea Area, Beresford, Minneapolis North (MN), Chamberlain, Sergeant Bluff-Luton (IA), LeMars (IA), West Central, Hartington Cedar Catholic (NE)
The Panthers are arguably the most talented team in any class. Reigning POY Isaac Bruns leads the way with 26.9 ppg and 7.8 rpg, while Jaxson Wingert (16.0 ppg) and Randy Rosenquist (13.8 ppg) are both averaging double figures. They have won 34 straight games, and their last regular season loss came on February 9th, 2021. That’s incredibly impressive.
The computer had them make a slight drop in rating after a 55-50 win against West Central (2-5), but what impressed me was their turn around against Hartington Cedar Catholic (NE). The Panthers made a great showing against an excellent out-of-state team with a 22 point win. Make no mistake, Dakota Valley knows how to win, and they are going to be the team to beat for the rest of the season.
Weekly Schedule: Fri vs. Tri-Valley, Sat @ Corn Palace vs #4 Sioux Valley
#4 Sioux Valley Cossacks (9-0)
Rank+: 166.7
Best Win: #1B De Smet (67-58)
Wins: C/WL, Beresford, Baltic, De Smet, Garretson, Baltic, Beresford, Hamlin, MC/M
Another team that has been consistently at the top over the last few seasons, the Cossacks continue to pos good wins. Sioux Valley is lead by a scary senior duo in guard Oliver Vincent and 6-10 center Alec Squires, who have made highlight after highlight this season.
As a team, twice they have gone to a neutral site and taken down a ranked team; first against De Smet in Brookings, then again verus Hamlin in Sioux Falls. Teams that can win at neutral sites tend to go far in the tournament and the Cossacks will have another chance to get one of those marquee wins this Saturday against Dakota Valley at the Corn Palace.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ Chester area, Thu @ Deubrook Area, Sat @ Corn Palace vs. #3 Dakota Valley
#5 Tea Area Titans (6-2)
Rank+: 159.5
Best Win: Madison (65-40)
Wins: Marshall (MN), Vermillion, Madison, Crofton (NE), Canton, Aberdeen
While not high on the state’s power points, the Titans have knocked down 6 wins in a row, and look poised to earn a few more before a couple big matchups against SFC and Western Christian (IA).
This is another team that has a ton of athleticism, and after early losses to Dakota Valley and O’Gorman, has shown a ton of improvement. The Titans are still looking for that marquee victory, but they have a tough February schedule that will give them plenty of opportunities.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ Watertown, Thu @ Tri-Valley
#6 Lennox Orioles (6-1)
Rank+: 158.3
Best Win: MV/P (65-52)
Wins: Milbank, Canton, Madison, Waconia (MN), MV/P, Vermillion
Another team that took an early loss, the Orioles have bounced back with 6 wins since opening night. They got a good win for the resume this last Friday against MV/P, and look to continue their improve over the next month before a really tough end-of-schedule that features #2 Dell Rapids, #3 Dakota Valley and #5 Tea Area.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ Chamberlain, Thu vs. West Central, Fri @ Platte-Geddes
#7 Rapid City Christian Comets (10-0)
Rank+: 152.3
Best Win: #2B Lower Brule (73-66)
Wins: Douglas, Crow Creek, Red Cloud, Lower Brule, White River, Dickinson Trinity (ND), Shiloh Christian (ND), Sturgis, Alliance (NE), Newcastle (WY)
If the Comets were in Class B, you could make the argument for them to be the #1 team in the state. RC Christian took home the championship at the Lakota Nation Invite with wins over #2B Lower Brule and #5B White River.
Both of those teams have shown excellent guard play, and RC Christians exposure and victory over those talented backcourts could be crucial to the Comets’ postseason run; as many of the best teams in A are built around their guards. Time will tell, but don’t be surprised if we see RC Christian play spoilers later in the season.
Weekly Schedule: Fri @ Lakota Tech
#8 Clark/Willow Lake Cyclones (6-3)
Rank+: 152.0
Best Win: Groton Area (51-43)
Wins: Milbank, Florence/Henry, Wessington Springs, Groton Area, Webster Area, Deuel
Certainly a team that hasn’t been discussed as much, the Cyclones of C/WL come in at #8 in our rankings. All three of their losses were to teams in the computer’s top 10, including #4 Sioux Valley and Class B’s #1 De Smet and #4 Castlewood.
C/WL has shown some solid improvement, including a close loss last week against the aforementioned Castlewood (54-51) and a 20-pt. win over Deuel. So while the Cyclones maybe haven’t made as much noise as the other teams on this list, this is certainly a team to watch out for.
Weekly Schedule: Thu vs. Roncalli, Sat @ Corn Palace vs. Canistota
#9 St. Thomas More Cavaliers (9-0)
Rank+: 149.4
Best Win: Sturgis (43-24)
Wins: Worland (WY), Thunder Basin (WY), Campbell County (WY), Scottsbluff (NE), Aberdeen, Belle Fourche, Douglas, Sturgis, Custer
The Cavaliers haven’t gotten many opportunities to show their abilities to the computer, mostly because of their heavy out-of-state schedule earlier on. They do, however, have good wins against Belle Fourche and Sturgis, and will face the best teams in the west river area later this season.
We could see this team rise very quickly in the rankings, especially if they can take home wins against Winner and RC Christian in the upcoming weeks.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. Lead-Deadwood, Thu vs. Douglas, Sat @ Corn Palace vs Winner
#10 Hamlin Chargers (4-2)
Rank+: 147.4
Best Win: Groton Area (69-57)
Wins: Groton Area, Howard, Tiospa Zina, Webster Area
The final team to make the list, the Chargers of Hamlin have shown they can play will the best teams in the state. First, they lost in Brookings against #2 Dell Rapids by 12. They bounced back, however, just 10 days later against #4 Sioux Valley in Sioux Falls, and fought to end in a 4-point loss.
Other than those two games, they have done what they have needed to against the rest of the schedule. The Chargers now have a great opportunity to take home a big win when they host De Smet on Tuesday. In fact, their next 4 opponents have a combined record of 24-8, so the Chargers have some upcoming tests on the schedule that could give them a boost in the rankings.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs #1B De Smet, Thu vs. Redfield, Sat @ Corn Palace vs MV/P
