INTRODUCTION
Patience.
It’s what many had to experience this basketball season, with snow storms preventing much of the early schedule for happening. It’s also a reminder for one like myself, who was anxious to build the newest power rankings system for basketball. And now, that patience has come to fruition.
First, for those new here, let’s get a few basics out of the way. Over the past summer, countless hours of research and development were put into a power rankings system for high school sports. The only statistics used in the system are the location of the game, and the score. This is to eliminate any biases in the system.
Then after running the system through the last few years of football, we were able to fine tune it using standard deviation to normalize scores, and released the rankings halfway through the 2022 football season.
The results?
A 87.8% success rate on picking the winner of playoff games, and a perfect 7-7 in state championships.
Now, we bring it over to the basketball season, with a few notes. First, we gain more data as we go along. The more games that are played, the more information the system has, and the better rankings we are to get.
Second, basketball is very volatile when it comes to taking home victories. That is to say, anyone can win on any given night. The difference right now between the best team in Boys AA and the 5th best team is 5 points. In fact, when we went through the numbers, there is 10 teams who are less than 10 projected points from being the top team in the state, any class. And as any basketball coach, player or fan knows, 5-10 points is only a couple of key possessions.
For football, the second best team in the state was projected nearly two touchdowns worse than the best in the state. That is a considerably larger gap. Therefore, don’t be shocked when it is possible to see more upsets. Again, as we get more information, gaps may widden, but the nature of the sport leads to crazy things.
After all, that’s why it’s called March Madness!
Third, there is currently no cap for scoring as was done for football. This may be done later, but the idea behind this is simply the flexibility in schedule. For football, teams are in smaller classes, rarely cross into other classes at the largest enrollments, and therefore, have a chance to match other team’s results against similar opponents.
This is not the case in basketball, as scheduling is up to the individual schools and conferences, and so as to not punish good teams in bad conferences/schedules, we have not put a ceiling on winning margin. For example, say a team was one of the best in the state, but played a somewhat lighter schedule. And let’s say this team beats another by 45, similar to what a team of it’s caliber would do. However, we limit the winning margin to 30. This team now looks 15 points worse.
This isn’t a problem in football for a number of reasons including similar schedules and more info we can dive into later, but in basketball, over the course of a season, this can really bring down a team who plays in a region with worse basketball, as they will play many of these games.
Finally, let’s talk Rank+ for those unfamiliar. Once the computer produces the ratings, we take those numbers and normalize them for their class. A 100 Rank+ in a class means they are an average team in their class. 1 point higher = 1% increase in their computer rating. This makes Rank+ a good number to gauge where a team is in their respective class.
Bonus Notes:
- “Best Win” is the highest ranked win the team has.
- Out of state opponents do not count towards the rankings.
- All Scores updated through the second week of January.
#1 Wagner Red Raiders (8-1)
Rank+: 181.3
Best Win: #4 SFC (62-29)
Wins: Winner, Menno, SFC, Avon, Bon Homme, Corsica-Stickney, Gregory, Parkston
The Red Raiders have absolutely dominated this season, putting up the second best offensive numbers in the state with 65 ppg. In fact, Wagner has scored at least 70 points three times season.
They also lead the state in scoring margin, winning by an average of 33 points. Simply put, this is the single most dominant team in the state. And although they took a 1 point loss to Vermillion at the Corn Palace, this team has already put together one of the best season in the state.
Weekly Schedule: Mon @ Ethan (W 59-36), Tue @ O’Neill (NE)
#2 Vermillion Tanagers (10-0)
Rank+: 162.3
Best Win: #1 Wagner (53-52)
Is there any team more exciting than the Tanagers?
When I first started putting the rankings together this season, Vermillion was right away in the top 5. I thought it was interesting, so it’s been cool monitoring this team over the last couple of weeks. They have quietly continued to add up wins before a big statement victory over Wagner.
While the win wasn’t quite enough to put them at the number one spot in the computer rankings, the state is certainly wide-awake to the skill of the Tanagers. You don’t normally see a senior-seventh grade duo lead one of the top teams in the state, but Leah Herbster and Taylor Reuvers are no ordinary duo.
Make note, this is one of the best storylines in the state, and the Tanagers are must watch basketball this season.
Wins: Canton, Worthington (MN), Tri-Valley, West Central, Tea Area, Ponca (NE), Parkston, Madison, Lennox, Wagner
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ EP-J, Fri @ Garretson
#3 Hamlin Chargers (8-0)
Rank+: 160.2
Best Win: #4 STM (39-34)
Wins: Groton Area, Flandreau, Mankato West (MN), STM, Tiospa Zina, Sioux Valley, Webster Area, West Lyon (IA)
Consistently one of the better teams in the state, the Chargers again find themselves at the top of Class A. They’ve beaten some really good teams this year, including #4 St. Thomas More, 7-win Groton Area, and most recently, 5-3 Sioux Valley. This is another team that’s winning by wide margins, and has only given up 34 ppg.
Hamlin’s schedule won’t get any easier, as ranked opponents in De Smet, Florence-Henry and Sisseton fill out the rest of the January lineup. With a stretch like that, this is going to be a battle-tested team come the end of the year, and they could make an impressive run in March.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. #9B De Smet, Thu vs. Redfield, Sat vs. #5 Florence-Henry
#4 St. Thomas More Cavaliers (9-2)
Rank+: 160.0
Best Win: #10 Belle Fourche (51-37)
Wins: Worland (WY), Thunder Basin (WY), Campbell County (WY), Scottsbluff (NE), Hill City, Belle Fourche, Sturgis, Custer, West Central, Flandreau
Just like the boys team, the computer hasn’t had much to work with given the Cavaliers heavy out-of-state schedule. But make no mistake, this is a team that can win.
Though their biggest victory of the season has been Belle Fourche, they’ve also beaten a solid Custer team and battled to the end with #3 Hamlin. The Cavs are going to have another big matchup next week against Spearfish, a win in which could set the tone for the rest of STM’s season.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. Lead-Deadwood
#5 Florence/Henry Falcons (8-0)
Rank+: 159.8
Best Win: #9B De Smet (61-32)
Wins: Deuel, C/WL, Milbank, Wilmot, De Smet, Waubay-Summit, Warner, Parkston
While the top 4 has all gotten their respect from around the state, it’s the Falcons who have quietly worked their way into the list of the top teams in Class A. Their last four wins listed above have all had winning records, but yet the Falcons have won by an average of 30 points.
It’s incredibly scary when a team has dominated at that level and still has something to prove. Florence/Henry, however, is going to get their opportunity to showcase their abilities to the state this upcoming Saturday when they travel to #3 Hamlin.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ Webster Area, Sat @ #3 Hamlin
#6 Sioux Falls Christian Chargers (7-1)
Rank+: 156.3
Best Win: Lennox (50-29)
Wins: Western Christian (IA), Lennox, EP-J, Unity Christian (IA), Dell Rapids, Tea Area, Watertown
Another team with a few wins out of state, the Chargers find themselves just out of the top 5. Since their loss against Wagner back in late December, SFC has show plenty of improvement in wins over Unity Christian, Dell Rapids, Tea Area and Watertown. The Dakota XII is a tough conference, and if the Chargers can keep knocking down wins in that league, they are going to be an experienced team heading into the playoffs.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs Garretson, Fri vs Madison
#7 Sisseton Redmen (8-0)
Rank+: 152.7
Best Win: #8B Castlewood (57-40)
Wins: GPL, Groton Area, Milbank, Mobridge-Pollock, Redfield, Chamberlain, Castlewood, Roncalli
It’s crazy to think that an undefeated team could fall to the spots of #7 or #8 like Sisseton and Red Cloud, but Class A is absolutely stacked for girls basketball this season.
However, Sisseton deserves to be talked about with the best, as their scoring margin is one of the best in the state at +23. Their offensive and defensive points per game is on par with the top 5, but they are just missing a few big wins that the other teams have. They do have a matchup against Hamlin on the 26th so we could see an undefeated battle between two of the top teams in the state.
Weekly Schedule: Thu @ Webster Area
#8 Red Cloud Crusaders (10-0)
Rank+: 152.2
Best Win: Lakota Tech (45-38), Lakota Tech (63-49)
Wins: Hill City, McLaughlin, Dupree, RC Christian, Lakota Tech, Todd County, St. Francis Indian, Lakota Tech, Custer
Another team that’s undefeated with great stats, the Crusaders have absolutely dominated this season. They are beating teams by an average of 27 ppg while scoring 64 ppg. They also have some nice wins, including a Lakota Nation Invite championship where they beat RC Christian and Lakota Tech.
The one thing holding them back from a higher ranking is the lack of a ranked win, but they are going on the road to #7AA Spearfish this Saturday in what could be a great test for the Crusaders.
Weekly Schedule: Mon vs. Little Wound (74-30), Fri @ #9AA Spearfish
#9 Hanson Beaverettes (8-2)
Rank+: 141.4
Best Win: #3B Ethan (75-65)
Wins: Ethan, Menno, Avon, Irene-Wakonda, Viborg-Hurley, Parkston, MC/M, Parker, Castlewood
Hanson has strung together some really good winning streaks this season and their only two losses are to #2B Centerville (51-42) and #1B Viborg-Hurley (54-39). It was impressive that they were able to play Viborg-Hurley to a close score, then turn around and take down a solid Parkston team by a considerable margin.
Like we talked about early, being able to bounce back from tough losses, or show the ability to play well on short rest is an indicator of a team that can make a good run in the playoffs. They also have a road win over #3B Ethan and a neutral site victory against #8B Castlewood, so the Beaverettes are showcasing their ability to play at a high level away from home.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ #6B Howard, Fri vs. Canistota
#10 Belle Fourche Broncs (7-1)
Rank+: 140.3
Best Win: #8AA Spearfish (59-55)
Wins: Spearfish, Wall, Sturgis, Douglas, Sundance (WY), Lead-Deadwood, Hot Springs
Over the last few weeks, Belle Fourche has been hovering around the #10 spot, bouncing back and forth with each game. They secured their place with a few dominant victories as of late, and hold a ranked win over Spearfish on opening night.
The Broncs also already got a victory this week against Hot Springs, and look to keep the momentum going tonight before a matchup against Winner on Thursday.
Weekly Schedule: Mon vs. Hot Springs (W 58-28), Tue vs. Hill City, Thu vs. Winner
