INTRODUCTION
Patience.
It’s what many had to experience this basketball season, with snow storms preventing much of the early schedule for happening. It’s also a reminder for one like myself, who was anxious to build the newest power rankings system for basketball. And now, that patience has come to fruition.
First, for those new here, let’s get a few basics out of the way. Over the past summer, countless hours of research and development were put into a power rankings system for high school sports. The only statistics used in the system are the location of the game, and the score. This is to eliminate any biases in the system.
Then after running the system through the last few years of football, we were able to fine tune it using standard deviation to normalize scores, and released the rankings halfway through the 2022 football season.
The results?
A 87.8% success rate on picking the winner of playoff games, and a perfect 7-7 in state championships.
Now, we bring it over to the basketball season, with a few notes. First, we gain more data as we go along. The more games that are played, the more information the system has, and the better rankings we are to get.
Second, basketball is very volatile when it comes to taking home victories. That is to say, anyone can win on any given night. The difference right now between the best team in Boys AA and the 5th best team is 5 points. In fact, when we went through the numbers, there is 10 teams who are less than 10 projected points from being the top team in the state, any class. And as any basketball coach, player or fan knows, 5-10 points is only a couple of key possessions.
For football, the second best team in the state was projected nearly two touchdowns worse than the best in the state. That is a considerably larger gap. Therefore, don’t be shocked when it is possible to see more upsets. Again, as we get more information, gaps may widden, but the nature of the sport leads to crazy things.
After all, that’s why it’s called March Madness!
Third, there is currently no cap for scoring as was done for football. This may be done later, but the idea behind this is simply the flexibility in schedule. For football, teams are in smaller classes, rarely cross into other classes at the largest enrollments, and therefore, have a chance to match other team’s results against similar opponents.
This is not the case in basketball, as scheduling is up to the individual schools and conferences, and so as to not punish good teams in bad conferences/schedules, we have not put a ceiling on winning margin. For example, say a team was one of the best in the state, but played a somewhat lighter schedule. And let’s say this team beats another by 45, similar to what a team of it’s caliber would do. However, we limit the winning margin to 30. This team now looks 15 points worse.
This isn’t a problem in football for a number of reasons including similar schedules and more info we can dive into later, but in basketball, over the course of a season, this can really bring down a team who plays in a region with worse basketball, as they will play many of these games.
Finally, let’s talk Rank+ for those unfamiliar. Once the computer produces the ratings, we take those numbers and normalize them for their class. A 100 Rank+ in a class means they are an average team in their class. 1 point higher = 1% increase in their computer rating. This makes Rank+ a good number to gauge where a team is in their respective class.
Bonus Notes:
- “Best Win” is the highest ranked win the team has.
- Out of state opponents do not count towards the rankings.
- All Scores updated through the second week of January.
GIRLS
#1 Washington Warriors (7-0)
Rank+: 198.4
Best Win: #2 Pierre (57-49)
Wins: Lincoln, Huron, Aberdeen, Pierre, O’Gorman, Jefferson, Roosevelt
The Warriors continue their late run of excellence with another start at the top spot. Their list of beaten teams include #2 Pierre (57-49), #3 Jefferson (46-42) and #4 O’Gorman (42-33), so they’ve certainly earned their position.
And what also makes this team so incredible is that they’ve held their opponents to just 35 ppg. You might not find a better defense in the state, and it’s really shown up in important games. The Warriors have another ranked matchup tonight against Harrisburg, who hold teams to 38 ppg, so expect a low scoring battle.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. #6 Harrisburg, Thu @ Marshall (MN)
#2 Pierre Governors (7-1)
Rank+: 182.9
Best Win: #5 Stevens (58-46)
Wins: Stevens, RC Central, Watertown, Spearfish, Sturgis, Lincoln, Lakota Tech
While Washington has won with a great defense, the Govs have flipped that around and won with a great offense. In a class that doesn’t feature a lot of scoring, Pierre has averaged 57 ppg. What makes that even more impressive is their consistency: their season-high is 63 and their season-low was 49.
In fact, in all but two games, the Govs have hit that 57 mark. Pierre can flat out score in the post, and will look to continue to develop from behind the arc. If they can start knocking down more shots from the perimeter, the ceiling is incredibly high for this team.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. Douglas, Thu vs. #7 Brandon Valley
#3 Jefferson Cavaliers (6-2)
Rank+: 168.0
Best Win: #5 Stevens (52-43)
Wins: Roosevelt, Brandon Valley, Lincoln, West Central, RC Central, Stevens
No team made more noise last year at the state tournament than Jefferson, who took down #1 Washington, and won the third place game over Brandon Valley. That trip to Rapid City turned out just to be a preview of this upcoming season, where the Cavs have showcased their abilities as one of the best teams in the state.
It’s easy to fall into the trap of a long road trip, but Jefferson took care of business against both RC Central and Stevens, before coming back West and battling with #1 Washington to the end. They are showing a lot of improvement since their loss to Tea before Christmas break, and look to knock down a couple more ranked wins this week.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ Yankton, Thu vs. #6 Harrisburg, Sat vs. #10 Huron
#4 O’Gorman Knights (5-2)
Rank+: 165.2
Best Win: #7 Brandon Valley (54-41)
Wins: Brandon Valley, Roosevelt, Watertown, Brookings, Yankton
The defending champs picked up right where they left off last season with a great win over Brandon Valley at the beginning of the year. Since then, they’ve only played 1 ranked opponent, falling to Washington on January 9th.
However, the Knights have done exactly what they’ve needs to do with their schedule: winning games by wide major. They will now have their first test since that loss this Thursday against Lincoln, in what should be an exciting matchup.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ Aberdeen, Thu vs. #9 Lincoln, Sat @ Roosevelt
#5 Stevens Raiders (6-2)
Rank+: 156.0
Best Win: #8 Spearfish (53-38)
Wins: Douglas, Aberdeen, RC Central, Spearfish, Roosevelt, Campbell County (WY)
The best team in the West River area, the Raiders are eager to break through this season as state champions after back-to-back runner-up finishes. They’ve shown they are close with narrow losses against #2 Pierre and #3 Jefferson, while picking up a great victory over #8 Spearfish.
This is a team with some past experience and the ability to play at a high level. Those types of teams are always dangerous, so we could see this team move up in the rankings with a couple marquee wins late in the year.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. Sturgis, Fri vs. Watertown, Sat vs. Brookings
#6 Harrisburg Tigers (7-1)
Rank+: 124.3
Best Win: #9 Lincoln (54-52)
Wins: Yankton, Lincoln, Marshall (MN), Roosevelt, Huron, Douglas, Spearfish
Harrisburg is a similar team to Washington in that they’ve won on great defense. The Tigers have held teams to as low as 19 points this season, and their only loss comes to an out-of-state team in Bishop Heelan of Iowa.
They have one great win on the resume over Lincoln, but have two excellent opportunities this week on the road. Possibly no one has had tougher back-to-back road trips this season than what Harrisburg has over the next 3 days, but it’s weeks like this that help you prepare for the state tournament.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ #1 Washington, Thu @ #3 Jefferson
#7 Brandon Valley Lynx (5-3)
Rank+: 119.7
Best Win: #8 Spearfish (58-49)
Wins: Roosevelt, Watertown, Brookings, Spearfish, Douglas
Interestingly enough, all 3 of Brandon Valley’s losses came before the calendar flipped over. Since New Year’s, however, they’ve turned a corner, taking home dominate victories and going on the road to beat Spearfish.
Hilary Behrens has continued to show she’s one of the best forwards in the state, averaging 14.1 ppg and 5.0 rpg to lead the way, while freshman Alyvia Padgett is in double-figures with 11.5 ppg. Padgett and fellow freshman Ava Kellenberger average over 18 minutes a game each, so it’s understable that the Lynx are beginning to find their rhythm with more experience.
They will have a great opportunity against Pierre this Thursday to show that improvement before taking on #5 Stevens and #1 Washington in early February.
Weekly Schedule: Thu @ #2 Pierre, Sat vs. Aberdeen
#8 Spearfish Spartans (2-5)
Rank+: 119.0
Best Win: Hill City (48-25)
Wins: Hot Springs, Hill City
At first glance, this is a team that one could dismiss. But taking a closer look, we can see why the Spartans are ranked so high. The computer loves consistency and Spearfish has played at a high-level all season. Their 5 losses come to #10A Belle Fourche (59-55), #2 Pierre (57-44), #5 Stevens (53-48), #7 Brandon Valley (58-49), and #6 Harrisburg (57-52).
They’ve faced the toughest schedule in the state so far, and played with those teams late in the game. The Spartans are going to have two more opportunities to knock down some big wins in tough matchups against Red Cloud and STM, but until they have a chance to get some more victories, don’t count them out as a team that could make noise late in the season.
Weekly Schedule: Fri vs #8A Red Cloud
#9 Lincoln Patriots (4-5)
Rank+: 105.0
Best Win: Aberdeen (68-51)
Wins: Yankton, Moorhead (MN), Aberdeen, Roosevelt
The Patriots are another team who has played a tough schedule. The top of AA has proven to be really good, and Lincoln holds losses to #1 Washington, #2 Pierre, and #3 Jefferson. They will have some more chances against those great teams in the upcoming weeks, including #2 OG on Thursday and #1 Washington next Tuesday.
Weekly Schedule: Thu @ #4 O’Gorman, Fri @ Mitchell
#10 Huron Tigers (4-3)
Rank+: 101.3
Best Win: #9 Lincoln (48-36)
Wins: Yankton, Brookings, Mitchell, Lincoln
We talked about the Huron boys team quietly putting together a season where they can knock down a few giants, and the girls team is in the same boat. Since back-to-back losses against Mitchell and Washington, they have beaten Brookings, played #6 Harrisburg to a 5-point loss, avenged their defeat against MItchell, and won by double-digits versus #9 Lincoln.
This is a team that has quietly show improvement over the last couple of weeks, so don’t be surprised if we see Huron take down a great team later in the season.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ Brookings, Sat @ #2 Jefferson
