INTRODUCTION
Patience.
It’s what many had to experience this basketball season, with snow storms preventing much of the early schedule for happening. It’s also a reminder for one like myself, who was anxious to build the newest power rankings system for basketball. And now, that patience has come to fruition.
First, for those new here, let’s get a few basics out of the way. Over the past summer, countless hours of research and development were put into a power rankings system for high school sports. The only statistics used in the system are the location of the game, and the score. This is to eliminate any biases in the system.
Then after running the system through the last few years of football, we were able to fine tune it using standard deviation to normalize scores, and released the rankings halfway through the 2022 football season.
The results?
A 87.8% success rate on picking the winner of playoff games, and a perfect 7-7 in state championships.
Now, we bring it over to the basketball season, with a few notes. First, we gain more data as we go along. The more games that are played, the more information the system has, and the better rankings we are to get.
Second, basketball is very volatile when it comes to taking home victories. That is to say, anyone can win on any given night. The difference right now between the best team in Boys AA and the 5th best team is 5 points. In fact, when we went through the numbers, there is 10 teams who are less than 10 projected points from being the top team in the state, any class. And as any basketball coach, player or fan knows, 5-10 points is only a couple of key possessions.
For football, the second best team in the state was projected nearly two touchdowns worse than the best in the state. That is a considerably larger gap. Therefore, don’t be shocked when it is possible to see more upsets. Again, as we get more information, gaps may widden, but the nature of the sport leads to crazy things.
After all, that’s why it’s called March Madness!
Third, there is currently no cap for scoring as was done for football. This may be done later, but the idea behind this is simply the flexibility in schedule. For football, teams are in smaller classes, rarely cross into other classes at the largest enrollments, and therefore, have a chance to match other team’s results against similar opponents.
This is not the case in basketball, as scheduling is up to the individual schools and conferences, and so as to not punish good teams in bad conferences/schedules, we have not put a ceiling on winning margin. For example, say a team was one of the best in the state, but played a somewhat lighter schedule. And let’s say this team beats another by 45, similar to what a team of it’s caliber would do. However, we limit the winning margin to 30. This team now looks 15 points worse.
This isn’t a problem in football for a number of reasons including similar schedules and more info we can dive into later, but in basketball, over the course of a season, this can really bring down a team who plays in a region with worse basketball, as they will play many of these games.
Finally, let’s talk Rank+ for those unfamiliar. Once the computer produces the ratings, we take those numbers and normalize them for their class. A 100 Rank+ in a class means they are an average team in their class. 1 point higher = 1% increase in their computer rating. This makes Rank+ a good number to gauge where a team is in their respective class.
Bonus Notes:
- “Best Win” is the highest ranked win the team has.
- Out of state opponents do not count towards the rankings.
- All Scores updated through the second week of January.
#1 Viborg-Hurley Cougars (9-1)
Rank+: 178.0
Best Win: #4 Wolsey-Wessington (72-52)
Wins: Freeman, Irene-Wakonda, EP-J, Wall, Hanson, Dakota Valley, Alcester-Hudson, Gayville-Volin, Wolsey-Wessington
Defending champs? ✔️
Undefeated in state? ✔️
Largest scoring margin in Class B? ✔️
The Cougars have checked off all the boxes as the best team in the state, and they’ve continued their run of excellence with one of the most dangerous offenses in any class. Senior Coral Mason leads the way with 21 ppg while classmate Denae Mach is scoring in double-figures at 15.3 ppg. The Cougars also have 4 girls shooting over 35% from behind the arc.
Anytime you have an experience lineup that knows how to shoot, your going to find success. And the Cougars have also shown no signs of slowing down, beating #4 Wolsey-Wessington by 20 at the Corn Palace Saturday. This is the team to beat in Class B.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. Avon, Fri vs. Baltic
#2 Centerville Tornadoes (7-2)
Rank+: 151.1
Best Win: #9A Hanson (51-42)
Wins: Hanson, Canistota, FA/M, Gayville-Volin, Burke, Scotland, Irene-Wakonda
The Tornadoes started their season with a big win over Hanson, and have continued to improve throughout the rest of the season. They took a tough loss against Arlington this past Saturday, but have consistently played at a high level this season. Centerville will have a chance to knock down a few more wins this week before a big matchup with #1 Viborg-Hurley on the 26th.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ Freeman, Sat @ Avon
#3 Ethan Rustlers (5-2)
Rank+: 149.1
Best Win: MV/P (61-54)
Wins: FA/M, Scotland, Wessington Springs, MV/P, Bridgewater-Emery
The Rustlers have not gotten a chance to showcase a lot of their ability with only a handful of games played, but they have beaten every Class B team on their schedule, and even took down MV/P on January 9th. They have an interesting matchup with Corsica-Stickney this week, who is going to be a nice challenge for the Rustlers.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. Menno, Thu vs. Corsica-Stickney
#4 Wolsey-Wessington Warbirds (7-1)
Rank+: 147.2
Best Win: Miller (52-49)
Wins: Wessington Springs, Faulkton Area, Kadoka Area, Miller, JVC, Estelline/Hendricks, SBA
The Warbirds, led by 6-4 Center Mallory Miller who has garnered Division 1 offers over the last couple of weeks, have certainly proven to be one of the top teams in the state this season. Though they took a loss to Viborg-Hurley at the Corn Palace on Saturday, Wolsey-Wessington has taken down a few one-loss teams in JVC and Miller.
They are still looking for that first ranked win, but they will face De Smet in early February.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ JVC vs. SC/W
#5 Arlington Cardinals (7-3)
Rank+: 146.7
Best Win: #2 Centerville (59-55)
Wins: O-R/R, Castlewood, De Smet, Madison, I/LP, Deuel, Centerville
Arlington has quietly worked their way up the rankings, and received votes in the media poll for the first time this week. They started off the season with losses to Howard and Garretson, but since then, they’ve taken down an impressive list of opponents:
- Dec 29, #8 Castlewood (57-35)
- Jan 5, #9 De Smet (77-65)
- Jan 14, #2 Centerville (59-55)
Maybe no team has a better trio of wins so far this season. They have another ranked opponent in Florence/Henry next week, but until then, be on the lookout for the Cardinals.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ Colman-Egan, Sat @ Deubrook Area vs C-G-B (MN)
#6 Howard Tigers (8-2)
Rank+: 145.8
Best Win: #5 Arlington (63-45)
Wins: Arlington, Freeman, Colman-Egan, Lyman, SC/W, Menno, Canistota, MV/P
Another team that has quietly played well all season, the Tigers got things started with a win over Arlington and continued to improve from there. They lost in a ranked battle to De Smet, but have plenty of opportunities to knock down some more ranked wins, starting tonight against #9A Hanson.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. #9A Hanson, Thu vs. Bridgewater-Emery, Fri @ Chester Area
#7 Jones County Coyotes (6-1)
Rank+: 144.5
Best Win:
Wins: K/WL, Highmore-Harrold, Stanley County, Burke, Colman-Egan, Bison
The only school in the West River area to make the Class B rankings, the Coyotes have featured a stifling defense. They’ve only given up 28 ppg this season, which is the second lowest in the state, any class. Their only loss comes to Wall in a tough battle, but make no mistake, with a defense as good as theirs, this Coyotes team has the potential to go far.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. Colome, Fri @ Kadoka Area
#8 Castlewood Warriors (5-3)
Rank+: 143.8
Best Win: Flandreau (38-31)
Wins: Deubrook Area, Flandreau, Deuel, C/WL, GPL
Castlewood has the unfortunate distinction of being the 3rd-ranked team in their region. As you know, only 2 teams make it out of each region into the Sodak 16, and Region 2B is stacked this season. #4 Wolsey-Wessington, #5 Arlington and #9 De Smet, as well as a pair of top 20 teams in Deubrook Area and JVC all find themselves in the same region as the Warriors.
Getting out of that region is going to require a battle-tested team, and Castlewood has certainly has put themselves in that position. Though they carry three losses, they are to #5 Arlington, undefeated #7A Sisseton, and #9A Hanson.
They have another tough battle against St. Mary this week, and a few more ranked teams on the schedule. This is going to be an experienced team come postseason play, so keep an eye out for the Warriors.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ St. Mary, Fri @ O-R/R, Sat @ Deubrook Area vs. Pipestone Area (MN)
#9 De Smet Bulldogs (5-3)
Rank+: 140.7
Best Win: #6 Howard (59-48)
Wins: Deubrook Area, St. Mary, C/WL, Howard, I/LP
De Smet’s has the same problems as Castlewood, although they are the #4 ranked team in their stacked region. The Bulldogs, though, have shown great improvement since they ran into the gauntlet of JVC, Arlington and Florence/Henry around New Year’s.
Since then, they have taken home dominant victories over C/WL and I/LP, while knocking off #6 Howard. They have a really tough matchup tonight against #3A Hamlin, but this team has shown a ton of improvement so far.
Weekly Schedule: Tue @ #1A Hamlin, Fri @ Estelline/Hendricks, Sat @ Deubrook Area vs. Hills-Beaver Creek (MN)
#10 AC/DC Thunder (5-1)
Rank+: 138.0
Best Win: Scotland (46-41)
Wins: Scotland, Gayville-Volin, T-D/A, Mitchell Christian, Menno
Maybe a surprise to the list, the Thunder have quietly won 5 games in a row since their opening night loss to Platte-Geddes. They are still looking for a hallmark win this season, but a win tonight over Corsica-Stickney would be great on the resume.
Weekly Schedule: Tue vs. Corsica-Stickney, Thu @ Avon, Sat @ Irene-Wakonda vs TBD
