AL EAST
BOSTON RED SOX (55-36)
Top Players- Rafael Devers (3.6 WAR), Xander Bogaerts (2.8 WAR), J.D. Martinez (2.7 WAR), Nathan Eovaldi (2.4 WAR)
Review- At the beginning of the season, I said that I thought this was going to be an average season for the Boston Red Sox. Well, I was wrong and I will admit that. I will also share that they have been the luckiest team in baseball according to expected weighted OBP, so don’t think this Boston team is going to compete for a world series. Even Pythagorean Win-Loss has them 4 games worse than where they stand.
However, it is 100% realistic that this is a strong playoff team, lead by the outstanding Rafael Devers (.287/.356/.576, 147 OPS+). The Red Sox offense has been solid, as Xander Bogaerts (.321/.382/.530, 144 OPS+), J.D. Martinez (.303/.372/.562, 148 OPS+), Alex Verdugo (110 OPS+), Hunter Renfroe (107 OPS+), and Enrique Hernandez (102 OPS+) all have an OPS+ over 100.
Speaking of Verdugo, Hernandez, and Renfroe, how about all those outfield assists?! Nathan Eovaldi (103.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) also has been good and the Red Sox bullpen has been the best in the AL East by a long shot. They deserve their names in this review, so here they are: Matt Barnes (2.68 ERA, 0.86 WHIP), Adam Ottavino (2.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), Hirokazu Sawamura (2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), Josh Taylor (2.70 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), Darwinzon Hernandez (2.79 ERA, 1.55 WHIP).
But what makes Boston so good? Well, I think it is because of their team attitude. There is a lot of hype right now surrounding the Red Sox and their organization. So good for them, they have a strong first start to the season and now will look to propel that into the rest of the summer. I could totally see them winning 97 games.
CONCLUSION: Playoff team that will have the bullpen to get to the ALCS.
TAMPA BAY RAYS (53-37)
Top Players- Joey Wendle (2.5 WAR), Tyler Glasnow (2.2 WAR), Randy Arozarena (1.9 WAR), Austin Meadows (1.7 WAR)
Review- Tyler Glasnow is closing in on the most interesting pitcher in baseball. He is a brilliant mind when it comes to knowing the sport, and his opinions on sticky substances resonated across the league. Sadly, he is now out with a serious arm injury, but may hopefully come back for the playoffs.
If the Rays hadn’t made the World Series last year, I don’t think many of these players become household names. I wouldn’t say Joey Wendle is one of those names, but he is having a nice season (.275/.337/.406, 124 OPS+). Now, PLAYOFF HERO Randy Arozarena is one of those household names, and is also having a good season (112 OPS+).
Austin Meadows (132 OPS+) and Mike Zunino (123 OPS+) shouldn’t be slept on, and while most championship teams are built on star power, I don’t think that applies to the analytical-minded Rays. Yes, Arozarena is well know, but he is well know for clutch performance in the playoffs, not as a consistent super star.
Pitching wise, Glasnow will be much needed for a playoff run, while Rich Hill (129 ERA+, 0.93 WHIP) is the #2 starter. Relief pitcher Andrew Kittredge has been great (1.47 ERA, 271 ERA+, 0.86 WHIP) and Tampa Bay is helped by this break, giving Ryan Thompson time to be healthy.
The Rays need to remain strong until they are healthy again, but even if this season isn’t theirs, Wander Franco is the superstar of the future for this organization.
CONCLUSION: Wild-Card team that desperately will need Glasnow to make a playoff run.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (45-42)
Top Players- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.4 WAR), Marcus Semien (4.2 WAR), Bo Bichette (3.3 WAR), Robbie Ray (2.7 WAR)
Review- I said at the beginning of the season that the Blue Jays are a few years away from a World Series championship, and I still believe that. Now, that doesn’t mean they aren’t a tough team, and the future’s so bright for this great Buffalo team.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is having an MVP season (.340/.437/.673, 28 HR, 200 OPS+) and while he is chasing the triple crown, he still might not get that MVP award. Guerrero Jr is great, plain and simply, and he is the leader the Blue Jays have desired. Marcus Semien has also been great (21 HR, 135 OPS+) and Bo Bichette is a TOUGH out (126 OPS+, .344 OBP). Jordan Romano has also been slept on, but the closer has continued to perform at high levels (1.76 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).
You could go through their entire lineup and you will see the future of baseball. I think other teams look at the Blue Jays and are nervous. It’s like watching a train come right at you, absolutely terrifying. But for now, we are watching this team grow up, learn the major league game, and win. Be on the lookout for the Toronto Blue Jays.
CONCLUSION: I still think it’s a developmental year for the Blue Jays, but the #5 playoff spot is realistic and they might sneak in.
NEW YORK YANKEES (46-43)
Top Players- Gerrit Cole (3.5 WAR), Aaron Judge (3.2 WAR), Jonathan Loaisiga (2.0 WAR), Chad Green (2.0 WAR)
Review- Listen, it hasn’t been an easy road for the Yankees. To be frank, everyone thought the Yankees were going to be better than they have been so far this season, and I think their best days are still ahead of them. They aren’t bad, and are one of the most talented teams in the league. New York’s biggest problem was motivation and I think Aaron Judge gives them just that. Judge has posted an OPS+ of 148, and has slashed .286/.377/.526, which are all on-par with his MVP season. Gary Sanchez has also improved this season (113+ OPS), and so has Giancarlo Stanton (15 HR, .851 OPS, 134 OPS+).
Gerrit Cole is obviously struggling to make an adjustment without sticky substances, but there are other great spots in the pitching staff. Jonathan Loaisiga (47 IP, 2.11 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) has some of the dirtiest pitches in the league (99 MPH fastball and a wipeout curveball), seriously go watch this guy pitch, and Chad Green has been solid as well (46.1 IP, 2.14 ERA, 0.71 WHIP). Besides those 3, Nestor Cortes Jr. (25.2 IP, 2.05 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) has been fantastic!
The biggest issues might actually be put on some veterans. Aroldis Chapman has been terrible as of late, and thank goodness this is Brett Gardner‘s last season. The Yankees outfield as whole has been a struggle, as Clint Frazier is not adjusting well to everyday at-bats, but a mid-season trade to get Diamondbacks’ Tim Locastro brings speed, defense, and realistically, a similar bat to Gardner to the outfield.
The Yankees could either be the turn around of the season, or they could be a sinking ship that will look to rebuild around Judge next season.
CONCLUSION: Fix the bullpen and the Yankees ceiling is the top of the league. Looks like, for now, they will miss the playoffs and be the disappointment of the year.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (28-61)
Top Players- Cedric Mullins (3.7 WAR), John Means (3.1 WAR), Austin Hays (1.2 WAR), Ramon Urias (1.1 WAR)
Review- I actually like the Orioles future. They usually are the joke of the league but they have some really talented players on the rise. Cedric Mullins (.315/.382/.545, 153 OPS+) should have been a starter in the outfield for the All-Star game, but honestly, I really don’t care for All-Star selections being an indicator of season performance. John Means also proved to be one of the games best pitchers (71.0 IP, 2.28 ERA, 0.83 WHIP), and has a no-hitter to his name, while Trey Mancini (114 OPS+) has been a bright spot.
Adley Rutschman is the future of this franchise, and until he is in the league, I don’t think the Orioles will compete for a league championship. But until then, look for secret gems like DH Ryan Mountcastle (.254/.300/.448, 103 OPS+) and Relief Pitcher Tanner Scott ( 34 IP, 2.91 ERA, 1.41 WHIP).
CONCLUSION: A development year, but don’t treat them like the absolute bottom of the league. They are a prospect team with some good upside.